Tuesday, January 19, 2010

By Jacob M. Jordan

The Obama administration has demonstrated a level of transparency unparalleled in American history. Americans see right through him, as a matter of fact. The debacle in Massachusetts settles (beyond doubt) that the grassroots uprising seen last August is far from being manufactured. When a relative unknown like Scott Brown masterfully defeats a Democrat in the New England's most entrenched liberal environment, there can be no dispute as to the resurgence of the right. On top of the defeat itself, consider the political context. Healthcare reform was supposed to be the magnum opus of the liberal establishment; it was supposed to be the crown jewel of the latter part of Ted Kennedy's senatorial career. Instead, following Kennedy's death (which should have given the controversial legislation an aura of legitimacy), a conservative like Scott Brown pulls the rug out from under the Democrats, winning the special election.

Indeed, this is not the work of astro-turf in Massachusetts. This is a staggering defeat on their turf. Make no mistake. As the Democrats' power increasingly wanes, the left will minimize the significance of each and every loss. While they may see the big picture, one cannot count on them to acknowledge the pattern. In reality, however, the successes in New Jersey, Virginia, and Massachusetts all signal the coming GOP dominance. One cannot simply look at 2010 as being the ultimate litmus test for conservatisms rebirth. Instead, the period between now and 2012 should be seen as one over-arching victory. Personally, I believe the GOP will reclaim the House in 2010.

At this point in the game, I can only imagine three things that could derail the conservatives from taking back Congress:

1.) A domestic attack or tragedy which President Obama responds to with zeal and solidarity. However, given Obama's soft stance on military tribunals, as well as his trashing of the CIA, his response would have to be near perfect to re-align perceptions of his weak national security policy. In truth, such an attack would probably add fuel to the fire of criticism.

2.) Intra-GOP calls for a third party movement lead to infighting, fracturing the GOP base. The responsibility for ensuring this does not happen rests very much on the shoulders of certain conservative figureheads.

3.) The GOP begins to distance itself from the Tea Party movement, perhaps because of certain fringe elements, or simply because the establishment GOP becomes too enchanted with itself. On this point, it is incumbent upon Tea Partiers and Republicans in general to ferret out the biggest RINOs. This will ensure that the Tea Party movement remains glued to the GOP for the long-term.

The GOP will take control of Congress (and the Senate) between 2010 and 2012. The process can be observed as we speak. Obama remains polarized at his party's peril (and to the GOP's benefit). My guess is the Democrats wise up and displace some of their more radical elements (specifically within leadership positions) within the next three months.